Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
